Is Concentrated Solar Power a Trillion Dollar Opportunity?

Solar thermal can produce clean heat to run processes that cause a third of global carbon emissions. In this article, I argue that a $1 Trillion pot of gold may await the right solutions.

The Role of Storage

Market Opportunity

• According to NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), US industries annually use around 1500 TWh of process heat in the 120⁰C-220⁰C temperature range [4].
• The cost of producing this heat using natural gas (NG) depends on local NG prices. It is those prices solar thermal ultimately needs to meet. Figure 2 below shows NG 2018/2019-prices by US-state [5].
• Solar thermal heat gets cheaper to produce the more the sun shines. For data on the annual amount of sunshine, please also refer to the map below [6].

• If industrial process heat demand is distributed similarly to the population distribution in the US [7] and if 30-40% the total 120⁰C-220⁰C process heat demand can be covered by solar heat production combined with day/night storage in pressurized water tanks, then cost-competitive solutions are looking at a 290,000 MW opportunity.
• Assuming 25 year’s depreciation, 4% cost of capital (how to get to 25 years & 4% will be discussed in my next article), maintenance of $5/MWh, and market prices per state set to match the cost of natural gas in each state, then the generation of process heat in the 120⁰C-220⁰C range represents a $180 billion opportunity for solutions capable of moving down a cost curve from $820,000/MW installed in California where the 29,000 MW potential represents a $24 billion opportunity towards $90,000/MW in Oklahoma representing a $285 million market potential. All of this assuming the solution providers are capable of eliminating the end-users’ perceived risks. How to eliminate these risks is also discussed in my next article.

How much are end-users willing to pay for solar heat?

How much is the market willing to pay for a solar field?